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Nobody Rings a Bell At The Bottom of the Market!

The headlines make it sound like the world is coming to an end–as if we have never before experienced the same types of economic trials that we are going through today. However, while the headlines may be factual, they are not accurate. Headlines are, understandably, written to sell newspapers. When it comes to our real estate markets though, those same headlines are perpetuating misconceptions about our markets and not providing proper and detailed perspective to the reader.  There is another side to the story.

An adjustment in the local real estate markets was not unforeseen. Experts noted at that time that a 20 to 25 percent annual increase in values over a 5-year period could not be sustained. While Sacramento County as a whole has seen a 13.7% decline in median home prices from September 2006 to September 2007, not every city in the area experienced such a steep decline. Although median prices have corrected themselves somewhat, they are still well above median prices of 10 years ago. 

A correcting market is historically followed by an improving market. Real estate is a long-term investment. The 2008 California Association of REALTORSâ Economic Forecast indicates that an individual buying a home in 1995 during the last turndown has, on average, realized equity growth of approximately 250%, in spite of the market’s current correction. According to CAR statistics, across California the average home seller put $180,000 of cash into his/her pocket through August 2007.

Markets that are tough for sellers are bonanzas for buyers. In the current market, opportunities abound. With median prices mitigated somewhat, homes are less expensive than they have been in several years. Interest rates remain at close to their historical lows. Inventory remains at higher levels than at any time during the first five years of the decade, allowing for multiple choices for those desiring to own a home. Despite the headlines we read every day, there are plenty of loan products available. Buying a home now may prove to be one of the best long-term investments available in years.

No one knows how long this current window of opportunity will remain open. When the market changes, it will likely change relatively quickly. No one will ring a bell to let us know we have hit the bottom of the market and an upswing is taking place.  It will take several months before the statistics catch up with the market and we can say, “That was the bottom”, just as it took several months to know exactly when the top of the market occurred.

So what does this mean to the average consumer?  Do you know someone who would like to purchase a home? Advise them to contact their professional Realtor so they can begin to understand the home buying process. A Realtor is in the best position to educate about the process; keeping the needs of the buyer in mind, helping to find the ideal property, and prepared to see opportunities that are ready to be taken advantage of.

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Should I Buy a Home At An Auction?

As the inventory of unsold homes in the Sacramento area continues to increase, some sellers have sold their homes through an auction process. This is particularly true with respect to homes that have been taken back by a bank through foreclosure. Sometimes  called a “Lender Foreclosure Auction”, these auctions are typically heavily advertised to the public with the aim of drawing large crowds of people hoping to walk away having purchased a home at a perceived rock bottom price. A quick search on the Internet yielded hundreds of sites for real estate auctions in Sacramento!

Whether you are considering buying a home to live in or are working toward an investment property, there are several things you should think about before wandering into a real estate auction and bidding on any particular property. While purchasing a home from an auction house might be a good result for some buyers, the unfamiliarity of the process can be frustrating and can result in certain problems.  With respect to auctions, the old adage of “Let the Buyer Beware” may well be true.

Before even considering going to an auction, all bidders need to understand the rules of that auction.  Most auction houses will send you a brochure upon your e-mail or phone request. There are as many different rules as there are auction houses. Thus it is essential to read that particular auction company’s rules very carefully. If you don’t understand something, don’t hesitate to ask questions of the auction company. Most reputable auction houses are willing to help you understand their process.

In many auctions, you will be required to have a cashier’s check in an amount specified by the auction company as well as a picture ID in order to register to be a bidder. Sometimes registration has to be completed prior to auction day and other times registration takes place at the auction. Be sure you have read the rules and comply with the requirements in order to qualify as a bidder.

Most auction companies sell homes subject to a “reserve price”. This means that the owner has established a minimum selling price and the sale is subject to the owner’s later confirmation of the final bid price. That reserve price may or may not be published. Realize that the owner is hoping that bidders will be caught up in the excitement of an auction ferver so that bidders are tempted to bid higher and higher. It can sometimes take several weeks to get the owner’s final approval of the bid price.  In the event the owner does not approve the final bid price, the house goes back onto the market.

Homes sold through the auction process may also require a “Buyer’s Premium”.  This means that there is a percentage that is automatically added on top of the final bid price (usually between 3% to 10%), which the successful bidder will need to pay to acquire the property.  Therefore, the actual price paid for a home will be the winning bid price plus the Buyer’s Premium.  If the Buyer’s Premium is 5% and the winning bid is $300,000 then the price actually paid for the home is $315,000.

Once a bid has been formally accepted in writing, expect to move quickly to closing. Although the Purchase Contract may allow you to have a period of time to qualify for a loan, you will be well served to have talked with a lender prior to going to the auction. Knowing what you can qualify for and how you want to structure your loan is important no matter how you purchase a home. Typically the auction house sets a deadline for closing (an example would be 30 days after the auction) and you may lose your earnest money deposit if you are unable to close by the set closing date. The amount required for an initial deposit and the form of the earnest money deposit may vary from auction house to auction house, so be sure you understand that requirement before bidding.

Most homes sold at auction are sold “As Is, Where Is”. Briefly, this means that the home is sold in its present condition, without any warranties or guarantees and with the understanding that the seller will not make any repairs. If the home is being sold by a lender after the foreclosure process (these properties are referred to as “REOs” or “Real Estate Owned)”, understanding what liens and encumbrances run with the property is extremely important. Buyers should carefully check with a title company regarding the status of title to determine what encumbrances exist that might impact the future use and enjoyment of the property.

Be sure you have done your homework before going to the auction. It is important that you have completed, prior to going to the auction, any inspections and/or investigations that you may need to undertake to determine the value and condition of the property. In determining a bid price, you should take into consideration any negative factors found during your inspections and/or investigations. Have your licensed contractor preview the home with you so you can make an educated assessment of the cost of required repairs before you ever step into the auction house. Determine a “top” price that you are willing to pay and stick to it. Once the hammer drops and the auctioneer says, “Sold” you may lose the earnest money deposit should you later determine that the house was not what you expected.

While it is possible to purchase a home at a discount price from an auction house, it is not easy and a mistake in any area could prove to be very costly. Many people do not understand that local Realtors list most homes taken back by a bank in foreclosure in the local Multiple Listing Service system and that many properties sold through auctions are also listed for sale with Realtors. If you are truly interested in purchasing a property that has been foreclosed upon, you may be better served by contacting your local real estate professional and allowing him/her to guide you toward successfully purchasing a property whether it or not it is being auctioned.

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The Real State of Real Estate

Gary Watts, a renowed real estate industry economist, recently spoke about the real state of the real estate market, especially as it relates to the Sacramento region. I thought I would share with you the good news he has for people considering real estate investments. For more information about Mr. Watts, visit his website at www.impactre.com.

Real estate markets are always cyclical, and effective real estate investments are held for the long term. Regardless of what the media headlines scream about the terrible shape of the housing market, the astute investor will look beyond the headlines and discover that today’s market offers opportunities that may not be available again in the near future.

Hardly a day goes by that headlines don’t trumpet the implosion of the subprime lending market, the lackluster sales of homes in the area or the radical increase of foreclosures. Newspapers sell more papers with negative headlines. While the headlines may be factual, lets explore why they are usually not accurate. A little historical perspective is in order.

In 1969, Business Week said in an article about the housing market, “The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000.” And, in 1977, National Business stated, “The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000…housing experts predict price rises in the future won’t be that great.” A decade later, by 1980, home prices in California had risen an average of 11.5% per year. While the headlines may have been factual, history shows they were not accurate.

In the early 1980s, inflation was running about 21.5% and 30 year fixed rate home loans ranged from 16% to 18%. In 1985, Money Magazine wrote, “The golden-age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.”At the end of the decade, California home prices had risen by an average of 7.95% annually. While the headlines may have been factual, history shows they were not accurate.

From 1990 to 1996 California home prices declined less than 2% annually, for a total of 12%. The San Francisco Examiner in 1996 wrote, “A home is where the bad investment is.” While the headlines may have been factual, history shows they were not accurate. From 1998-1999, Sacramento area home prices increased 38%! According to the California Association of REALTORSâ, the average annual rate of appreciation for California homes since 1968 is 7.75%.

While today’s headlines may be factual, they are not accurate. California is poised to realize a huge jump in real estate values over the next several years, just as they have done in the past, for several reasons:

  1. The population of California is expected to double by the year 2050—from 36.5 million residents today to a population of 60 million. Many of those people will settle in the Sacramento region.
  2. California’s economy is large and diversified. We are home to many of the most creative and innovative companies in the world—think Google, Apple, HP and many, many more. California is home to 1 out of every 11 workers and produces 15% of the Gross Domestic Product in the United States.
  3. Northern California is home to over 30% of California’s entire diversified workforce: trade, a growing service sector, expanding electronics, manufacturing, high-tech, bio-tech, construction, tourism, agriculture and government, are among the many industries employing our workforce.

As more and more people call California home, the housing industry will not able to keep up with the need for new housing units. With a mild climate, lots of recreational opportunities, relatively low housing prices and a highly educated workforce, the Sacramento region will continue to be a magnet for highly productive jobs. Sacramento is forecasted to be in the top 15 markets for both population and growth over the next five years.

Currently, home prices have dropped a bit, interest rates are at historical lows, and the large number of homes on the market allows for more choice than any time in the recent past. Now is the time to consider purchasing real estate. Whether your first home, a second home or part of a long term investment strategy, Sacramento area real estate will be a strong cornerstone for your financial future. Don’t look back in several years and say, “I wish I had taken advantage of the opportunity.”

-Kathy Fox

(reprinted from The Sacramento Union with permission)

Key Questions Every Seller Needs to Ask Before Choosing a Real Estate Professional (Part 2)

This week we continue with our series of the list of questions you should ask prior to hiring a real estate professional to help sell your home. Last week we asked, “Tell me about your experience and philosophy of doing business.”, “What resources does your company provide to help get my home sold and closed?”and “What is your marketing strategy?” The following questions will help you round out the interview process to better understand the agent you decide to hire.

  1. What is your negotiation strategy when an offer on my home is received? You need to know what the agent plans to do with an offer. How does he plan to present it to you? What questions have been asked of the other agents and lenders? What is the selling agent’s experience in negotiation? When an agent cannot tell you how he negotiates, he may be willing to leave money and/or terms on the table that could have been more favorable to you.
  2. How will you communicate with me during the listing period? Knowing what to expect regarding communication can greatly reduce anxiety levels. Would you prefer a telephone call or is an email more convenient? How often would you like to hear from the agent? Letting the agent know what type of communication and how often you would like to be communicated with sets parameters and will help you better understand how flexible the agent may be in meeting your needs.
  3. Are you a member of NAR, CAR and a local association of REALTORS©? Not every licensed salesperson is a member of NAR, CAR and a local Association of REALTORS©. Not every salesperson can call herself a “REALTOR©” This is important to you because every REALTOR© is committed to following a strict code of ethics. In this most important transaction, you need to know that you will be treated honestly and fairly. Additionally, as a member of NAR, you can be confident that your agent has the latest training courses, articles regarding the latest legal decisions and resources at hand to help market your home more effectively.
  4. How are you proactive in protecting my interests? Most real estate agents are independent contractors. As such, they run their own small businesses. How many transactions are they juggling at the same time? Does the agent have time for your listing? What forms, disclosures and procedures does your agent employ to protect your interests? Does the agent carry Errors &Omissions insurance? Does the agent make a habit of representing both buyer and seller? If so, what protections and procedures are in place to be sure your interests are met fairly?

Real estate is bought and sold every day. In a changing market it is important that you do your homework before hiring someone to help sell your home. By asking these questions, you will improve your chances of finding and working with a qualified individual. This will help make one of life’s most stressful transactions smoother, so you can enjoy it along the way.

-Kathy Fox

(reprinted from The Sacramento Union with permission)

Key Questions Every Seller Needs to Ask Before Choosing a Real Estate Professional (Part 1)

Most of us sell our homes only once every several years, so we are not really in touch with the procedures and realities of today’s market. Selling your home involves a variety of skills—and a lack in any area could mean that your house does not sell, or sells for less than it could. How does one go about looking for an agent to help? Whether from a friend’s recommendation or from contacting a local real estate office, you should interview prospective agents prior to making the final decision as to who is best suited for the job. When interviewing an agent to represent you in one of life’s most important financial transactions, asking and getting answers to the following questions should help you be as prepared as possible.

  1. Tell me about your experience and philosophy of doing business. Understanding how many years the agent has been in business will help you know whether the agent is capable of bringing an offer for your home. In most cases, another agent will be representing the buyer. Is the agent capable of seeing the process through to completion? How many escrows did the agent close last year? What percentage of buyers and/or sellers does the agent work with? Some agents only work with sellers, some agents only work with buyers and some agents work with both. Listen to the answers and decide which philosophy will work best in your situation.
  2. What resources does your company provide to help get my home sold and closed? When marketing one of the most expensive items you may ever sell, the greater the support brought to the table, the greater the likelihood more people will see your home. Many companies have websites to draw buyers to listings as well as technological tools that assist agents in mobilizing the real estate community and providing your home with maximum exposure. What sort of resources does the agent’s office have to help assure an escrow will get closed? Many companies have transaction coordinators to help with the paperwork. Who provides coverage if an agent is away from the office for a few days? Should an offer come in while an agent is away, how is it handled
  3. What is your marketing strategy? You are asking what the agent is going to do to get your home sold, to manage the escrow and make sure the escrow closes. The best agents know they need a plan to effectively market a home. Professional agents will be happy to share how they market listings. This should include advertising, networking, Internet strategy, public and industry viewing schedules as well as a variety of other activities to get your home exposed to the largest number of prospective buyers possible.

Next week, we will discuss some additional questions to ask a real estate professional before determining which one is best equipped to help you sell your home.

-Kathy Fox

(reprinted from The Sacramento Union with permission)